Analyst Watch

A summary of analyst coverage

TBP Editorial Team

30 December 2017

Summary of Analyses

2018

 

SP Angel - Target Increase to 37p

Vanadium prices continue to rise on shortage of vanadium pentoxide as new rules on vanadium in steel come into force in China

Valuation: we have raised our valuation to 37p from 34p on higher than expected ferrovanadium prices for this year and raised expectations for ferro-vanadium through 2019.

  • Ferro-vanadium prices jumped another 6% higher to US$112-116/kgV in Western Europe this week according to Metal Bulletin.
  • Asian Metals also report a vanadium of US$117.5/kgV for ferrovanadium in China.
  • The Metal Bulletin report US$104-110/kgV for China.
[Forward price guidance for 2019 now raised from 35 to 45 US$/kgV, apart from that remains unchanged into the future at 35 US$/kgV]

Original link   Archive

10 Oct 2018

Buy

37p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

Alternative Resource Capital - H1-18 results

H1 results underline company transformation

H1 revenue jumped from £26m at Vametco in 2017 (prior to Bushveld taking majority ownership) to £62m in 2018, reflecting vanadium’s sharp ascent over the past year on constrained supply and firming demand.

Were we to upwardly adjust our 2018 FeV price assumption by projecting forward current market prices for the remainder of the year, our consolidated EBITDA estimate would rise by 20% (which would put Bushveld on an attributable EV/EBITDA multiple of just 4.0x).

Original link   Archive

26 Sept 2018

Buy
36.2p

ARC

Nick Chalmers

 

SP Angel - Target Increase to 34.2p

The team agreed $17.5m for the 20% stake in holding company, Special Metals Corporation, which raises Bushveld’s stake in Vametco to 75% from 59.1%.

The acquisition of the SOJITZ stake adds some 3.1p/s to Bushveld by our estimation.

BUY – Target price rises to 34.2p from 30.55p post the H1 production results

Theoretically, if the vanadium price were to remain at current, elevated, price levels then Bushveld Minerals should be worth just over a pound more in share price terms by our modelling

Original link 

14 Sep 2018

Buy

34.2p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

SP Angel - Target Increase to 33.6p

Strong vanadium prices combine with weak South African rand to lift earnings expectations for Vametco 

BUY – Target price rises to 33.6p from 24.94p

Scenario 2) If we assume the current vanadium price through the first seven-months of the year $66/kg is repeated through the second half and remain with the spot South African rand rate then we get:

• EBITDA = ~US$146m

• Attributable EBITDA ~US$86m

Other scenarios are considered both with higher targets quoted.

Original link   Archive 

13 Aug 2018

Buy

33.6p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

Alternative Resource Capital - FY17 Update

A transformational year, with more to come

2017 was a landmark year for Bushveld, the company transforming from explorer to producer with a significant share of the global vanadium market through its acquisition of a 59.1% interest in the Vametco operation in South Africa...

We will review our pricing assumptions and forecasts in due course given continued vanadium market tightening on rising demand and constrained supply amid new standards for Chinese steel rebar.

Original link   Archive

29 June 2018

Buy

ARC

Nick Chalmers

 

SP Angel - Target Increase to 24.94p

Strong production lowers unit costs

BUY – Target price rises to 24.94p from 18.28p

we are raising our valuation and target price to 24.94p from 18.28p today on confirmation of stronger vanadium production and on raised expectations for higher average ferro-vanadium prices through 2018 and thereafter.


Original link 

27 Apr 2018

Buy

24.94p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

Alternative Resource Capital - Upgraded Target 19.8p

Balance sheet strengthened, vanadium marches on

Bushveld’s recent US$22m equity placing strengthens the group’s balance sheet as it looks to simplify its organisational structure to improve exposure to the underlying cash flow of its majority-owned Vametco vanadium operation in South Africa. Moreover, it has added institutional and mining-specialist investors to a previously retail-investor dominated shareholder register....

Our resultant 20p sum-of-parts valuation represents >30% upside to Bushveld’s share price, a valuation gap we think should narrow as Bushveld further executes its expansion plans for Vametco and begins drawing up surplus cash flow.

Original link   Archive

10 Apr  2018

Buy

19.8p

ARC

Nick Chalmers

 

Alternative Resource Capital - Initial Target 14p

Right commodity, right asset, right time

Bushveld’s recently-acquired Vametco operation in South Africa offers direct exposure to vanadium, one of the best performing metals over the last two years with prices surging four-fold from the lows of late 2015...

we see substantial valuation upside potential on vanadium price (FeV is currently trading around double our US$30/kg long-term (from 2020) assumption)

Original link   Archive

1 Mar 2018

Buy

14p

ARC

Nick Chalmers

 

SP Angel - Target Increase to 18.28p

Vanadium price rise more than offsets SA rand strength

BUY – Target price rises to 18.28 from 14p

Following discussion with Bushveld Minerals we have raised our production forecasts to match the guidance given by the company.

Original link   Archive

23 Jan 2018

Buy

18.28p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

SP Angel - Target Decrease to 14p

Bushveld accelerates expansion to capitalise on higher vanadium price levels

BUY – Target price adjusted to 14 from 14.3p

We will continue to work through our forecasts in relation to higher vanadium prices and our rand rate assumptions and will update the market in due course.

Original link   Archive

22 Jan 2018

Buy

14.00p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

Hallgarten - Model Mining Portfolio

Vanadium returned to an upswing and is viewed as our metal to watch in 2018

We feel that 2018 will be the year of the specialty metals and that Vanadium is the metal to watch from this universe.

Original link   Archive

3 Jan 2018

Hallgarten & Co

Christopher Ecclestone

2017

 

SP Angel - Target Increase to 14.3p

SP Angel today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Bushveld Minerals (LON:BMN) and raised its price target to 14.30p (from 11p).

Original link   Archive

30 Nov 2017

Buy

14.30p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

Hallgarten - Initiation of Coverage

Vanadium Awakens

The recent upsurge in Vanadium prices sent investors (and promoters) scrambling to find primary Vanadium mines or projects into which they could sink their teeth. The choice was poor indeed. Back in the more balmy days of the turn of the decade the potential names to conjure with were only 5 or 6 companies, with only two being advanced....

Original link   Archive

19 Nov 2017

Neutral

9.00p

Hallgarten & Co

Christopher Ecclestone

 

SP Angel - Target Decrease to 11p

SP Angel today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Bushveld Minerals (LON:BMN) and cut its price target to 11p (from 13p).

Original link   Archive

17 Nov 2017

Buy

11.00p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

SP Angel - Target Decrease to 13p

SP Angel today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Bushveld Minerals (LON:BMN) and cut its price target to 13p (from 14p).

Original link   Archive

9 Nov 2017

Buy

13.00p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

SP Angel - Target Increase to 14p

Vanadium prices drive profits higher as management target expansion

Bushveld Minerals recently acquired control of the Vametco vanadium mine and process plant in South Africa. The deal paid for itself within four months of its acquisition and is significantly profitable. The company also have a stake in the Uis tin/lithium project in Namibia through Greenhills Resources as well as an integrated power project in Madagascar in Lemur Resources ....

Original link   Archive

17 Aug 2017

Buy

14.00p

SP Angel

John Meyer

 

SP Angel - Initial Target Price Set to 11.6p

Persistence, ‘Fortune’ and Good Luck

 Bushveld Minerals is developing a world-class vanadium platform based around the Vametco processing plant in the Bushveld region of South Africa.

 The combination of the existing Vametco mine and processing plant with new licenses to the north east will enable Vametco to confidently expand production. ....

Original link   Archive

07 Apr 2017

Buy

11.60p

SP Angel

John Meyer

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