The Strange Case of the 16th of May


17 May 2018

Wednesday the 16th May 2018 - after a slight retrace back to 21p, following the recent significant rerate from 9p to 24p and the company's Vanadium 101 webinar, we suddenly see the appearance of a number of large trades that have had minimal effect on the share price. First to cause interest was the 500K trade at 9:42am, reported without any delay, but without any impact on the share price. This was at 21.70p the Bid at the time and was followed within the hour by a direct copy of this trade.

Further large trades appeared during the day and these are shown highlighted in the green in the full context of the days trading:

Notice immediately how I have had to increase the right hand scale by a factor of 10 to even show the nett trade balance - this reaches the level of minus 5.36 Million at the end of trading - an apparently huge deficit if we simply take these trades at face value.

Let us look at these trades in more detail to see if we can gain a greater understanding. Shown below are the unusual trades, with letters indicating the potential matches.

A is not a perfect match, hence the star, whilst B is. C doesn't have a matching pair, yet, and D is simply a trade reversal. E seems to be a triplet.

Thus we see what appear to be a variety of different scenarios been played out all within 4 hours and all without any apparent impact on the share price - all very confusing so far...

What is perhaps more interesting is that the total of these trades, which have all been classed as sells, is 4.85 Million. This is getting quite close to the apparent nett share trading position of minus 5.36Million.

This suggests that we may be able to explain all these trades simply as a zero nett sum redistribution of shares amongst the Market Makers - this would bring the true nett trading position to the day back very close to neutrality.

Add in another 500K for pair C and you would attain an even better days trading balance - it will therefore be interesting to see if any delayed 500K trade appears, or if another 450K rounds out group E. ( 4 out of the day's 10 large trades were reported late).

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