Trading Analysis - 11th Oct 2018


11 October 2018

End of Day

Rather interesting behaviour today - a tiny excess of sells and the Ask is immediately dropped, it remains that way until there are almost 1.5 million more Buys than Sells.

Before 2pm there were a number of large buys - I have marked all those of size 100K or larger - these amount to a total of more than 1.3 million shares.

At 2:21pm there appeared a trade of 250K which coincided with an increase in both Bid and Ask of 0.5p. One might be tempted to think that this might imply that this trade is therefore a Buy - however that would put it at a somewhat lower price than a number of previous smaller trades. Given the previous popularity of 250K sized Sells during the end September First Island Selling spree I am inclined on this occasion to mark it as a Sell, combined with a heavy dose of Market Market obfuscation on the advertised Bid and Ask. Also because I am a naturally conservative guy and do not wish to be accused of overstating the Buys.

By the end of the day the nett trading position left the Market Makers having sold c. 1.1 million more shares than they appeared to acquire from PI's. With no more delayed sells being shown for the previous days this brings the current Market Maker nett short position to 2.5M shares. They must be hoping that the Buys will dry up and the Sells continue as they continue to walk the price down, and can close their short at lower than 26p.

The systematic nature of the significant Buys today is suggestive of someone building a position. If so, then if First Island catch wind of this (or the fact that the Market Makers are taking them for a ride), and they were selling, then perhaps they will not continue doing so.

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